Китайцы увеличат военный бюджет 2001 года сразу на 17.7%
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China to announce big increase in military spending
By James Kynge in Beijing
Published: March 5 2001 19:00GMT | Last Updated: March 5 2001 21:39GMT
China will announce on Tuesday its biggest annual increase in military spending for more than a decade, in a move that could sharpen arguments for increased US arms sales to Taiwan and may raise concerns throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
In an annual budget to be presented to the National People's Congress (parliament) on Tuesday, Xiang Huaicheng, the finance minister, was expected to announce a 17.7 per cent rise - to Rmb141bn ($17bn) - in defence spending this year over 2000, according to a copy of the budget seen by the Financial Times.
Although China's true level of military spending is believed by Western defence analysts to be as much as two or three times the published amount, the annual budget figures do indicate a trend. Adjusted for deflation, the rise is 19.1 per cent - the 13th consecutive double-digit increase and the biggest annual jump for more than a decade.
Mr Xiang was expected in a speech on Tuesday to justify the increase by referring to significant changes in world military situations and to speak of the need to modernise the 2.5m-strong People's Liberation Army. Part of the extra money is also earmarked for higher military salaries.
Observers said the increased spending is indicative of a significant change in China's strategic thinking. Internal reports have predicted that military spending throughout the 10th Five-Year Plan, which starts this year and runs until 2005, will increase by a real 15-20 per cent annually, and total nearly Rmb 1,000bn. The rise in 2000 was 12.7 per cent.
One reason for this is the participation of Nato - or more specifically the US - in the Kosovo war last year. Beijing perceived the move, suggesting that Washington could intervene in conflicts on the basis of human rights and circumvent the United Nations, as a new type of threat.
"This was seen in Beijing as having very portentous implications for Taiwan," said James Mulvenon, associate political scientist at Rand Corporation, a US think-tank.
Another reason for the military build-up has been a perception that the election of Chen Shui-bian as Taiwan's president in March last year represented the culmination of several years of separatist drift. Beijing is threatening to attack Taiwan rather than allow it to become independent.
India's successful nuclear test in 1999, and its ongoing missile programme, had also provided impetus for China's military spending, diplomats said.
The acceleration of weapons procurement was expected to trigger particular anxiety in Japan and Taiwan. Tokyo has long been concerned at Beijing's mounting military spending, with senior officials warning of growing "distrust" among the Japanese population over China's long-term intentions.
Mr Mulvenon said the budget would find resonance on Capitol Hill, where it could reinforce arguments for arms sales to Taiwan. Washington is due to make a key decision on the sales in April.